欧洲恐怖主义的新态势及原因分析——基于聚类分析法

New Trends and Causes of Terrorism in Europe——Based on Clustering Analysis

[目的/意义]2011年中东和北非动乱以来,欧洲成为全球恐怖袭击的核心区域。对欧洲恐怖主义的国家分类有助于更好地分析当前新态势的原因。[方法/过程]以全球恐怖主义数据库(GTD)中恐怖袭击的频率和烈度为依据,利用SAS软件的聚类分析法,对2001-2010年和2011-2016年两阶段的欧洲恐怖袭击进行国家分类。根据实验结果中的异同来分析当前欧洲恐怖袭击的新态势。[结果/结论]结合数据源分析可知,移民危机、多元文化政策、"申根协定"、民族分裂势力和反恐合作乏力等是本轮袭击频发的重要原因。欧洲当前的恐怖主义态势源于深层次的社会矛盾,解决之路任重道远。

[Purpose/Significance]Since the turmoil in Middle East and North Africa in 2011,Europe has become the core area of global terrorism attacks.The nation classification of the terrorism in Europe contributes to a better analysis of the causes of the new situation presently.[Method/Process]Based on the frequency and intensity of terrorism attacks in the Global Terrorism Database(GTD),SAS software clustering analysis was used to classify the European terrorism attacks occurred in 2001-2010 and 2011-2016.According to the similarities and dissimilarities in the experimental results,the new situation of the European terrorism attacks are analyzed.[Result/Conclusion]The analysis of data sources reveals the main reasons for the high frequency of attacks,which include the immigration crisis,multicultural policy,the"Schengen Agreement",the separatist forces and the lack of anti-terrorism cooperation.The current terrorism situation in Europe stems from deep-seated social contradictions and there is a long way to go to solve the problems.