中国跨越经济周期的制约因素和应对机制

Restrictive Factors and Response Mechanism for Surpassing the Economic Cycle of China

经济周期是一种跨时空的资源配置机制,企业及时纾解财务困境是该机制有效运行的前提条件。但是,在利润最大化目标和各种金融监管指标约束下,金融体系与实体经济形成正反馈机制,而这放大了融资困境,因此,解决融资困境的出路是超越金融机构的顺周期行为。基于此,提出了三方面的路径选择:建立逆周期的企业资产评估体系、实现实体经济与虚拟经济的均衡发展、按照试验-推广模式推进人民币国际化。

Economic cycle is a resource allocation mechanism across time and space,and it is the prerequisite for the effective operation of the mechanism to relieve the financial difficulties in time.However,the financial system and the real economy form a positive feedback mechanism that amplifies the financing dilemma under the restriction of profit maximization target and financial supervision indexes.Therefore,the way to solve the financing dilemma is to surpass the cis-cycle behavior of the financial institutions.Based on this,three paths are put forward:establishing an enterprise assets evaluation system against the cycle,realizing the balanced development of the real economy and the virtual economy,and promoting the internationalization of RMB according to the test-promotion mode.