中国入境旅游外汇收入预测研究--基于多种灰色组合模型的应用

Predictive Study on Foreign Exchange Revenue of China′s International Tourism——Based on the Application of Multiple Grey Combined Models

入境旅游外汇收入是一国旅游业竞争力的重要体现,根据2000—2015年我国入境旅游外汇收入数据,构建GM(1,1)模型、多项式模型、对数模型、指数模型等多种模型的组合模型,通过各单一模型对比发现,灰色组合模型能够明显地提高预测精度,对2016—2020年我国入境旅游外汇收入进行预测,并对提高入境旅游外汇收入提出了旅游产业因果关系向关联关系意识转变,进一步凝练与打造地方特色牌,进一步完善旅游基础设施建设,优化入境旅游消费结构,加强从业人员国际化水平,协调环境保护与经济发展的关系等对策建议。

Foreign exchange revenue of international tourism indicates the competiveness of a country忆s international tourism.Based on the data of China忆s international tourist foreign exchange income from 2016 to 2020,the article constructs a combined model with GM model,polynomial model,logarithmic model and exponential model.By comparing the individual model,the paper finds that the grey combined model can markedly improve the precision of forecast.While predicting China忆s foreign exchange revenue of international tourism from 2016 to 2020,the paper proposes some suggestions to raise the foreign exchange revenue of international tourism.These suggestions include:the change of consciousness from causal relationship to correlation relationship of tourism,making locally-distinctive brand,improving the construction of tourist infrastructure,optimizing the consumption mix of international tourism,coordinating environmental conservation and economic growth and among others.