金融发展、产业结构升级与经济增长的动态因果性分析

Analysis of the Dynamic Causality among Financial Development,Industrial Structure Upgrading and Economic Growth

金融是现代经济的核心。基于中国1978-2014年时间序列数据,运用VAR模型的Grange因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解方法实证分析了金融发展与产业结构升级和经济增长三者之间的动态因果关系。研究得出:金融发展、产业结构升级和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系;金融发展是产业结构升级的原因,经济增长是金融发展的原因,产业结构升级和经济增长互为因果。当经济增长受到正向外部冲击时,会在第2期对金融发展产生显著的负向影响;当金融发展受到正向外部冲击时,会在第1期对产生结构升级产生显著的负向影响。

Finance is the core of modern economy.Based on China’s annual data set covering the period from 1978 to 2014,the Grange causality test,the impulse response and variance decomposition are applied to analyze the dynamic causality among financial development,industrial structure upgrading and economic growth.Several conclusions are drawn:there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among financial development,industrial structure upgrading and economic growth;financial development is the cause of industrial structure upgrading,economic growth is the cause of financial development,there is a two-way causal link between industrial structure upgrading and economic growth;finally,when economic growth is affected significantly by positive external shocks,it will have a significant negative impact on the financial development in the second period.When the financial development is affected by positive external shocks,it will have a significant negative impact on the structural upgrading in the first period.