我国人均卫生费用与经济增长的关联性研究:基于向量自回归模型的实证分析

Relevance research between per capita health expenditure and economic growth in China :based on VAR model

目的研究我国人均卫生费用与经济增长的动态关联性,为卫生经济政策的制定提供相关依据。方法采用1990—2015年时间序列数据,建立人均卫生费用和人均国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)间的向量自回归(VAR)模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析变量间的动态关系。结果人均卫生费用与人均GDP之间存在着长期均衡关系,同时存在明显的双向格兰杰因果关系。经济增长对人均卫生费用的影响同时存在短期和长期效应,而人均卫生费用则在短期内推动经济的发展。结论政府应加大对医疗卫生事业的投入,制定合理的卫生费用投入增长机制,加强卫生投入供给侧改革。

Objective To study the dynamic correlation between per capita health expenditure and economic growth in our country,and to provide relevant evidence for the formulation of health economic policy.Methods The time series data from 1990 to 2015 were used.A VAR model was established between per capita health expenditure and per capita gross domestic product(GDP).Impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to analyze the dynamic relationships among variables.Results There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between per capita health expenditure and per capita GDP,with obvious two-way Granger causality.The impact of economic growth on per capita health expenditure has both short-term and long-term effects,while per capita health expenditure promote economic development in the short term.Conclusion It is suggested that the government increase investment in medical and health services,formulate a reasonable growth mechanism for health expenditure input,and strengthen supply-side reform of health input.