两岸产业关系密切吗——基于2004—2015年两岸800个行业分工型态的研究

Evaluation and Analysis of Industrial Division Patterns of Taiwan and Mainland in the Trade Perspective——Based on 800-industry data during 2014—2015

两岸产业关系密切与否,取决于两岸产业分工及分工型态。两岸产业分工围绕着具体是垂直分工还是水平分工这一议题,在一定时期内颇有争议。本文借用产业内贸易指数分析方法,依据台湾"关务署"公布的2004—2015年两岸800个行业的HS四位码数据,从产业链视角分析两岸产业分工的具体型态。研究发现:两岸产业内贸易有了一定发展,但两岸贸易仍以产业间贸易为主。另外,两岸产业链的分工型态既有产业内贸易垂直分工又有水平分工,但台湾占优势的垂直分工特征明显,从而可以得出两岸产业融合发展并不理想。基于此,本文从两岸产业交流与合作30多年的发展历程中分阶段探讨和分析影响两岸产业分工型态的因素。

It is quite controversial on the issue of vertical or horizontal division in the industrial division of Taiwan and Mainland in a given period. From the perspective of industry chains and by the intra-industry trade indexes, this paper analyzes the specific industry patterns of both coasts based on their 800-industry HS four-digit data during 2004-2015 issued by Taiwan Customs Administration. It is found by study that:(1) The trade across the Taiwan Straits is still subject to the inter-industry trade, which is developing increasingly;(2) The division patterns of cross-strait industry chain presents both vertical and horizontal divisions in intra-industry trade, but Taiwan takes a dominant advantage in vertical division. Based on this, this paper discusses and ana-lyzes the factors of industrial division patterns of Taiwan and Mainland by different stages in the past more than 30 years of development in the industrial exchanges and cooperation of the two sides.