中国城市大气污染特征及社会经济影响分析

Study on the Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Socioeconomic Driving Factors of Air Pollution in China

大气污染因影响人类健康、制约国家发展而成为全球最关注的环境问题之一。基于2016年中国361个城市空气质量数据,利用空间自相关和核密度法分析中国空气质量的时空演化特征,并运用空间计量经济模型从全国和区域两个尺度探讨空气污染的社会经济影响因素。结果表明,(1)从污染等级上看,全国及各区域空气质量以优、良和轻度污染天气居多。(2)从时间变化上看,全国及各区域空气质量呈现出"夏低冬高,春降秋升"的"U"型月变化规律。(3)从空间变化上看,全国空气质量整体呈现出由沿海到内陆、由南到北、由西到东、由非采暖区到采暖区、由欠发达到发达区逐渐加重的态势,其中,京津冀、山东半岛和黄河中游属于高污染热点集聚区,而南部沿海、青藏和云贵高原属于低污染冷点集聚区。(4)从全国层面上,人口集聚、工业化和能源消耗对大气污染的恶化具有推动作用;而经济发展、科技进步和城市绿化的提高则有助于改善城市空气质量。(5)从区域层面上看,绿地覆盖率对各地大气污染呈不同程度的负向改善效应;人口密度、能源消耗、第二产业占比和民用汽车拥有量对各地大气污染呈不同程度的正向加重效应;而科技支出占比和人均GDP对各地空气质量的影响具有双向性。该研究结果可为寻求污染治理办法提供理论参考,并为人与自然的和谐发展提供科学依据。

Air pollution is one of the most concerned environmental problems which seriously threatens the health of human beings and restrains the development of local society and economy.This paper studies the spatiotemporal characteristics of air pollution in China by the methods of spatial autocorrelation and kernel density which based on the daily data of AQI(air quality index)of 361 major cities in 2016.A spatial econometric model is built to detect the influences of socioeconomic factors on AQI at national and regional scales.The study shows that:(1)Excellent,good and slightly polluted air quality status is predominant.(2)A U-shaped monthly variation of air quality discovers the great seasonal difference which means the condition of clean air in summer and serious pollution in winter and early spring.(3)Spatially,the national air pollution is worsening from coast to inland,from south to north,from west to east,from non-heating area to heating area,and from underdeveloped areas to developed areas.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Shandong Peninsula and the middle reach of Yellow River are heavily polluted,while the air quality of southern coast,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,are in good condition.(4)At national scale,population agglomeration,industrialization and huge energy consumption,obviously aggravate air pollution,while economic development,progress of science and technology,and urban afforestation,significantly improve air quality.And(5)at regional scale,greenery coverage shows positive effects on the improvement of air quality,while population density,energy consumption,ratio of secondary industry,and number of civil motor vehicles,have various degree of negative relationship with air quality.Moreover,expenditure of science and technology,GDP per capita have bidirectional effect on air quality.Recognition of driving factors for air pollution can contribute to scientific decision-making of air pollution control and benefit a harmonious relationship between human and nature.