摘要
通过深圳市交通统计局查找深圳市年度各交通工具客运量,构建马尔科夫链模型,对深圳市交通需求结构进行分析。通过马尔科夫链模型来预测深圳市实施"禁摩限电"政策后各种交通需求比例,与深圳市实施"禁摩限电"政策前各种交通需求比例进行比较。从预测结果可以看出,短期内人们的出行方式以乘坐地铁和公交车为主,且随着时间的推移,乘坐地铁的出行方式不断增加,而对乘坐公交车的需求量有下降的趋势。
In this paper,through analysis of Shenzhen Bureau of Transportation’s statistics on the number of passenger transport each year in Shenzhen city,Markov chain model is constructed to analyze the structure of its traffic demand.Through the Markov chain model,the proportion of various traffic demand after the implementation of“No motorcycles,no electric cars”policy in Shenzhen is predicted and has been compared with its traffic demand ratio before the implementation of the policy.It can be seen from the prediction results that in the short term,people travel mainly by subway and bus,and as time goes by,the way of traveling by subway is increasing,while the demand for taking buses is decreasing.
作者
李富荣
高卓
LI Furong;GAO Zhuo(School of Information Engineering,Zhujiang College of South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510900,China;Department of Basic Courses,Zhujiang College of South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510900,China)
出处
《东莞理工学院学报》
2018年第1期14-17,共4页
Journal of Dongguan University of Technology
基金
广东省特色创新类项目(2016GXJK222)
广东省教育教学成果奖培育项目(1322)
国家级大学生创新创业训练项目(201612623005)
关键词
马尔科夫链模型
禁摩限电
交通需求
markov chain model
no motorcycles,no electrombile
traffic demand
