区域性强对流天气类型组合综合危险度评价研究——以重庆市为例

Research on Assessment of Comprehensive Dangerous Degree of Regional Strong Convective Weather Type Combinations: A Case Study of Chongqing

以重庆市为例,探讨了区域性强对流天气类型组合的判定标准及其综合危险度评价模型。利用1981~2014年重庆市52次区域性强对流天气过程资料,采用加权综合评价方法,按区域性强对流天气类型组合,分2个层次,评价区域性强对流天气类型组合综合危险度,并根据百分位法确定区域性强对流天气类型组合综合危险度等级。结果表明:根据区域性强对流天气类型组合判定标准,重庆市区域性强对流天气类型组合分为区域性大风冰雹短时强降水、区域性大风冰雹、区域性短时强降水大风和区域性短时强降水等4类,它们的综合危险度与区域性强对流天气过程中每一种区域性强对流天气的强度和覆盖范围呈正比。重庆市52次区域性强对流天气类型组合综合危险度的评价结果客观、准确性较高;评价方法简单易行,可满足区域性强对流天气灾后快速评价的需要。

In this paper,Chongqing was used as an example to probe the criterion of regional strong convective weather type combinations and their comprehensive dangerous degree assessment model.According to the data of 52 times regional strong convective weather process from 1981 to 2014 in Chongqing,we assessed the comprehensive dangerous degree of regional strong convective weather type combinations at 2 levels by using the method of weighted comprehensive assessment,and ascertained the grade of the comprehensive dangerous degree through the percentile method.According to criterion of regional strong convective weather type combinations,the regional strong convective weather type combinations in Chongqing could be divided into the following 4 types:regional gale+hail+short-time rainstorm,regional gale+hail,regional short-time rainstorm+gale,and regional short-time rainstorm,and their comprehensive dangerous degrees were in direct proportion to the intensity and coverage of each regional strong convective weather in the process of regional strong convective weather.The assessment results of comprehensive dangerous degree of 52 times regional strong convective weather type combinations in Chongqing were objective and relatively accurate;the assessment methods were simple and feasible,and could be used for the rapid assessment of regional strong convective weather.