我国西南边境地区跨境贸易的阻力及其影响因素

Barriers to Cross-border Trade and the Impact Factors in Southwest China

以1998—2016年中国云南与相邻的老挝、缅甸及越南间的跨境贸易为研究对象,基于贸易面板数据,利用引力模型,分析边界效应的存在性,运用阻力函数估算边界效应的阻力值,分析影响边界效应的因素。结果表明:边界效应对跨境贸易的影响明显;在跨境贸易中,越南对中国云南的跨境贸易阻力最大、老挝次之、缅甸最小;语言趋同、缩小文化和政治体制差异、人民币区域一体化和增强宏观调控能力有助于弱化边界效应的影响。在推进跨境贸易的行动中,可根据阻力的大小确定贸易对象的优先顺序,并根据阻力的影响因素制定有针对性的政策措施。

The paper targeted at the cross-border trade between China(Yunnan)and Vietnam,Laos and Myanmar.First,a gravity model was estimated to test the existence of border effect using panel data of cross-border trade.Second,border effect was introduced into the gravity model and the barrier force was then estimated.Last,factors affecting the barrier force were analyzed.The results showed there exists distinct border effect in the targeted cross-border trades,the barrier force of cross-border trade is the highest in Vietnam,followed by Laos and then Myanmar,and that the factors of language convergence,reduction in cultural and institutional difference,regional integration of currency and improvement in macroeconomic control can reduce the border effect and thus promote cross-border trade.The information can be used to prioritize partnership for cross-border economic cooperation and make policy countermeasures in dealing with border effect.