线性合成概率预测在天山地区的应用研究

RESEARCH ON APPLICATION OF LINEAR SYNTHETIC PROBABILITY PREDICTION IN TIANSHAN AREA

利用1970~2017年天山地震带(中国境内)Ms5.5级以上地震目录,针对北天山和南天山东段Ms≥5.5级地震及天山地震带、南天山西段和柯坪块体Ms≥6.0级中强地震,计算了基于地震周期谱分析的线性合成概率预测时序变化,进行回顾性震例检验,对2018年地震形势进行预测。结果表明,该方法在天山地震带中强地震的回溯性检验效果较好,为强震趋势预测研究提供一定参考依据。

According to Ms≥5.5 earthquakes which occurred in Tianshan seismic region from 1970 to 2017,based on the Ms≥5.5 earthquakes in northern Tianshan and east segment of southern Tianshan,Ms≥6.0 earthquakes in west segment of southern Tianshan and Keping block,the liner synthesis probability is calculated based on the seismic cycle spectrum,and the practical retrospective earthquake case study is carried out,and the earthquake situation in 2018 is predicted.The results show that this method is better in the retrospective prediction research of strong earthquakes in different areas of Tianshan,and may provide synthetic judgment reference for the tendency prediction of strong earthquakes.