中国分行业碳排放的EKC检验及“脱钩”分析

EKC Test and Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions of Sub Sector in China

碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)是用来描述碳排放和经济发展之间关系的有效工具。本文选取1997—2014年中国六大行业的能源消费量和国民生产总值,在估算中国六大行业能源消耗产生的碳排放量的基础上,对不同行业的碳排放EKC曲线进行了检验,并利用Tapio脱钩模型对六大行业碳排放与经济增长进行"脱钩"分析。研究结果表明,行业整体的碳排放和经济发展是正相关直线关系,其中两个行业的EKC曲线是直线,两个行业的EKC曲线呈现"倒U"型,两个行业的EKC曲线呈现"U"型;将行业经济增长与碳排放的脱钩状态进行排序,由好到差依次为:工业,建筑业,批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业,农、林、牧、渔、水利业,其他行业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业;2014年各行业的碳排放与经济增长均实现"脱钩"。

Carbon emission environmental kuznets curve(EKC) is an effective tool to describe the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. The paper collects energy consumption and GDP from Chinese six industries in 1997-2014. On the base of estimating carbon emissions generated from energy consumption, the EKC curves are tested, and decoupling analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of the six industries is given by using Tapio decoupling model. The results show that the EKC of the whole is positive correlation line, and two industries' EKC are positive slope line, two industries' EKC present inverted "U", two industries' EKC present "U". The state of decoupling in descending order is: industrial, construction, wholesale,retail and accommodation, catering, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, water conservancy, other industries, transportation, warehousing and postal services. For all industries, carbon emissions and economic growth are "decoupling" in 2014.