2017年南亚地区经济发展形势综述

The Situation and Prospect of Economic Development in South Asia in 2017

随着世界经济的复苏以及南亚地区各国国内需求的增加、基础设施建设的推进、开放步伐的加快,2017年南亚经济继续保持较高的增长速度,并成为全球最具经济活力的地区之一。但与上年相比,由于印度"废钞"引发的经济增长率下降以及私人投资仍然不活跃、政府负债较多和安全形势不佳等问题导致南亚经济增速有所放缓。在对外贸易方面,本年度的进出口贸易额比上一年增长了不少,但由于进口扩大使南亚的经常项目赤字增加,导致国际收支逆差进一步扩大。在物价方面,2017年南亚地区的消费者价格指数(通货膨胀率)继续保持较低水平。在地区安全形势方面,各类风险与不确定性因素仍然较多,特别印巴冲突、中印洞朗对峙事件以及印度抵制中国货等,一度影响了双多边关系的发展,也影响了南亚经济的发展。

With the recovery of the world economy and the increase of the domestic demand,as well as the improvement in infrastructure construction and the deepening of the opening-up in South Asia countries,the economic grow in South Asia has remained high growth.However,comparing with last year,the economic growth in South Asia has slowed down due to internal factors such as sluggish private investment,government spending growth and import expansion.In the aspect of foreign trade,the volume of import and export trade in South Asia increased by a large margin compared with that of the previous year.However,the increase in the current account led to an increase in the current account deficit in South Asia,which led to a further widening of the balance of payments deficit.From 2015 onwards,inflation in the South Asian region,measured by the consumer price index(annual inflation rate),has remained at a low level,indicating a relatively stable price.Various types of risks and uncertainties have plagued South Asia.In 2017,South Asia suffered a serious conflict between India and Pakistan.The Sino-Indian confrontation and the anti-government forces in India have affected bilateral and multilateral relations,and subsequently,affected the economic development of South Asia.