台风疏散时间选择决策建模与仿真

Modeling and simulating evacuation timing decisions during typhoon disasters

为了更加准确地估计疏散需求分布以及路网清空时间,提高台风疏散的效率,考虑被疏散个体做出疏散时间策略的主观选择,从而达到被疏散人口撤离的均衡分布,将被疏散者的交互作用因素融入离散选择模型,构建了基于随机最优反应均衡理论的台风疏散时间选择模型。最后运用Matlab软件仿真分析各参数变化对均衡策略下疏散时间决策的影响,验证模型了可行性和有效性。结果表明:被疏散个体的期望效用、个体间交互作用和个体的推断能力对疏散时间选择有显著的影响。

To enable an improved estimate of the dynamic distribution of evacuation demands,traffic network clearance time,and improve typhoon evacuation efficiency,and by considering how strategic evacuation timing choices made by individuals aggregate to form an equilibrium distribution on the evacuation of people,a typhoon evacuation timing choice model based on quantal response equilibrium is established by integrating interaction factors for evacuees into the discrete choice model.To verify the feasibility and validity of the model,Matlab is used to analyze the effects of parameter changes on the evacuation timing decision under equilibrium strategies.Results show that the expected utility of evacuees,the interaction between individuals,and the individual inference ability have a significant influence on the evacuation time choices.