洪涝灾害危险性评估方法研究

Study on the Flood Hazard Assessment Method

为改进洪涝灾害危险性评估方法精度,利用洪涝灾害前期土壤湿度和未来24 h降雨预测数据作为致灾因子,结合河湖网络、地形和土地利用类型等孕灾因子,基于层次分析方法确定指标权重,研究了洪涝灾害评估方法中致灾因子评估指标的作用,以2013年8月中旬松花江流域洪涝灾害为例,利用土壤湿度和前3 d降雨量数据两种不同因子危险性评估方法结果比较,以及风云气象卫星洪涝灾害监测结果对危险性评估结果的验证,表明了利用洪涝灾害前期土壤湿度和未来24 h降雨预测数据作为致灾因子得到的危险性评估结果与实际灾情吻合效果较好,验证了方法的有效性。

In this paper,the flood hazard assessment method based on GIS spatial analysis,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and normalization technique is used to evaluate the hazard of Songhuajiang River Basin.Through the introduction of flood disaster early soil moisture and the next 24 hours rain prediction data as the disaster factors,combined with the river network,terrain and land use types of disaster factors,determine the weight of evaluation index,applied to the flood hazard assessment.The flood disaster in mid August 2013 Songhuajiang River Basin as an example,through the comparison of using soil moisture and 3d before rainfall data of two different factors of risk assessment,and monitoring results of flood disaster meteorological satellite to verify the assessment result of risk,illustrating the obtained results coincide well with the actual situation.