1978-2016年全国分区农业气象灾害灾情趋势分析

Regional Analysis of Agro-meteorological Disasters Loss Tendency Variation From 1978 to 2016 in China

以全国7大地理区域农业气象灾害灾情为研究对象,收集整理1978-2016年各区农作物受灾面积、成灾面积等灾情数据及农作物播种面积、农业总产值等基础数据,首先分析近40年来因灾农作物损失面积变化趋势;然后根据灾害学理论,估算因灾农作物经济损失;最后进行最优参数估计,获得分区分灾种受灾面积超越概率分布情况。结果表明:农业气象灾害尤其是旱灾对农业生产造成影响很大,在全国灾害面积整体呈减少趋势时,旱灾成灾面积及冷冻灾受灾和成灾面积还在逐年增加。旱灾在东北地区受灾面积、成灾面积以及西南地区成灾面积呈增加趋势;除东北地区受灾面积外,冷冻灾在大部地区受灾面积、成灾面积呈逐年增加趋势。旱灾在各个地区也是造成农业经济损失的主要灾害因素。

China has 7 geographical regions,in which agro-meteorological disasters loss are significantly different.Supported by agricultural and natural disasters statistical database of China,the long term trend of the influences of drought,flood,hailstorm,chilling damage on crops area during 1978-2016 are covered in this article at the national and regional level.Then,based on the disaster theory,economic losses are estimated in 7 regions.Finally,by choosing the optimal parameters,exceeding probability of regional disaster areas on crops are covered.The results indicate that:Agro-meteorological Disasters,especially drought,have a great impact on agricultural production.Different from the decreasing tendency of national disaster areas on crops,drought disaster area,chilling damaged and disaster area have increased by years.On sub-regional analysis,drought damaged and disaster area in the northeast and drought disaster area in the southwest of China also have increasing trends.Chilling damaged and disaster area have increased in most regions except the northeast of China.Drought is the major disaster factor of crop economic losses in each region.