基于对应分析的反恐防御资源分配问题研究

Application of Correspondence Analysis for Governmental Early Warning and Defense Resource Allocation Against Terrorist

恐怖袭击目标的泛化和软化使稀缺的资源无法对每处目标设防,为提高防御资源使用效率,将"对应分析"应用于恐怖袭击风险预警和反恐资源分配问题研究中,并从防御资源的类别角度提出资源分配的具体方案。在GTD大数据基础上,选取袭击目标为主因素,分别与死亡率、受伤率、时间段、武器进行对应分析,首先根据分析结果把袭击目标归为五大类:(1)"高频率、高死伤、低损失"的平民、警察、军队目标;(2)"低频率、低死伤、高损失"的公共事业、飞机和机场目标;(3)"低频率、高死伤、低损失"的交通目标;(4)"高频率、低死伤、低损失"的政府目标;(5)"低频率、低死伤、低损失"的其他各类目标。其次,结合对应分析的结果并利用定性分析,提出了情报资源、安保资源、监控资源、武器资源和安检资源在各类目标中的具体分配方案。

As terrorist attacksare random and uncertain,it is hard to allocate scarce defense resources to every potential targets.In order to make the allocation scheme more reasonable,Correspondence Analysis is innovatively used,and a new perspective based on the types of defense resources are also considered in this article.Based on GTD database,the correspondence associations is found between main factor“target”and other factor such as“mortality”,“Injury rate”,“period”,“weapon”.According to the results of correspondence analysis,3 types of critical target are defined firstly,they are“high risk,high casualty,low loss”target,“low risk,high casualty,low loss”target,and“low risk,low casualty,high loss”target.A resource allocation scheme are designed secondly,it refers to the specific allocation of information resources,security resources,monitoring resources,weapons resources and security resources.