全面二孩政策对中国生育水平的影响——基于多项Logit模型的探讨

Impact of Two-child Policy on China's Fertility Level:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Multinomial Logit Model

客观认识全面二孩政策对生育水平的可能影响是未来中国生育政策调整和完善的基础。本文以2005年全国1%人口抽样调查原始数据为基础,采用多项Logit模型,从微观层面对妇女生育水平的影响因素进行检验,并以此为基础对全面二孩政策对中国生育水平的影响进行测算。结果表明:(1)在控制了其他因素后,妇女个体社会经济特征、生育政策对生育水平都存在显著影响,而且个体社会经济特征的影响起主导作用;(2)全面二孩政策启动后中国生育水平必然会低于世代更替水平。如果假定其他条件不变,仅考虑全面二孩政策影响,中国妇女终身生育率将回升至更替水平附近(2.148);若同时考虑妇女个体社会经济特征等其他因素影响,全面二孩政策后中国生育水平必然会低于更替水平。

The objective understanding of the impact of two-child policy on fertility is the basis of China’s fertility policy adjustment and improvement in the future.Based on original data of 1%national population sample survey 2005,this paper explores the influence factors on fertility by using multinomial logit model from the micro level.Then the paper calculates the impact of two-child policy on China’s fertility on this basis.Careful analysis shows that individual socio-economic characteristics and fertility policy have significant effects on women’s fertility level after limiting other factors.Specifically,individual socio-economic characteristics play a leading role.Secondly,influenced by the two-child policy,China’s total fertility rate is bound to be lower than the generation replacement level.If we only consider the effect of two-child policy on China’s fertility,the fertility level would rebound to replacement level.However,if we take all effect factors into account at the same time,China’s fertility level must be lower than the replacement level.