全面二孩政策下重庆市不同流向区域流动人口二孩生育意愿及影响因素的比较分析——基于2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据

Comparative Analysis on the Fertility Desire of having the Second Child and its Influencing Factors among the Floating Population of Different Flow Directions in Chongqing City under the Universal Two-child Policy:Based on the National Dynamic Monitoring D

本文利用2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,将重庆市户籍流动人口按不同流向区域划分为市内流动、流出到西部地区(不含重庆)、中部地区和东部地区四种类型,分析比较全面二孩政策背景下重庆市不同流向区域流动人口的二孩生育意愿及影响因素,研究结果发现:重庆市仅有17.89%的流动人口明确打算会再生育一个孩子,性别、年龄、文化程度及一孩年龄等变量影响着重庆市流动人口的二孩生育意愿。研究结果还发现,重庆市不同流向区域流动人口之间的二孩生育意愿不存在显著差异,但已在流入地买房对不同流向区域流动人口二孩生育意愿的影响有着明显不同,市内流动和流入到西部地区的近距离流动人口中,已在流入地买房者比没在流入地买房者生育二孩的可能性高出20%以上,而流向东中部地区的流动人口其可能性两者相比却还要低10%以上。一孩性别也对重庆市不同流向区域流动人口二孩生育意愿产生着不同的影响,一孩为男孩相比一孩为女孩的流动人口,中部地区打算生育二孩的可能性低64.4%,而市内流动样本两者的可能性相比还要高出2.7%。

Based on the 2016 dynamic monitoring data of the floating population,the floating population in Chongqing is divided into four types:intra-urban mobility,outflow to the western region(excluding Chongqing),the central region and the eastern region.The paper explores the floating population’s fertility desire of having the second child in the different flow regions and its influencing factors under the Universal Two-child Policy.The results show that only 17.89%of the floating population intends to having a second child in Chongqing,and the gender,age,education level and age of the first child affect the fertility desire of having the second child of the floating population.The results also show that there is no significant difference of fertility desire of having the second child among the four groups of floating population,but the impact of having own houses on the desire shows a distinct difference in the different flow regions.People who have owning their own houses have more than 20%possibilities to have the second child than those who don't buy their homes in the inflow in the close range flow,while the possibility is lower more than 10%in the eastern and central regions.The first child's sex also has different influence on the floating population’s fertility desire of having the second child in the different flow regions.The possibility of having the second child for those whose first child is boy is significantly lower than 64.4%comparing with those whose first child is girl in central region,and is even higher than 2.7%in intra-urban mobility.