甘肃省人口预测与发展趋势分析

Population Forecast and Development Trend in Gansu Province

人口发展是经济可持续发展的前提,区域可持续发展水平取决于人口规模与经济社会、资源环境协调发展程度。准确预测未来人口的发展状况有利于国家和区域发展规划、人口政策的制定。本文基于甘肃省人口历年公报数据和普查数据,运用线性回归模型、阻滞增长模型、灰色预测模型和中国人口预测软件(CPPS)对甘肃省2017~2030年人口发展趋势进行预测和分析。最终预测结果取各模型预测结果的均值,并对最终人口预测结果及其人口学特征进行研究,在此基础上对甘肃省今后实现人口可持续发展提出了对策。

The development of the population is the premise of sustainable development in a region.The scale of population which is in harmony with the economy,society,resource and environment determines the sustainable development of this region.Accurately predicting the future development of the population is conducive to national and regional development planning and population policy formulation.Based on the data of the sixth census and the previous communiques of Gansu Province,this paper adopts the linear regression model,the block growth model,the gray prediction model and China Population Prediction Software(CPPS)to predict the scale of population from 2017 to 2036 in Gansu Province,then the final forecast results take the average of the four model predictions.According to the final result of population prediction and the demographic characteristics study,this paper puts forward some suggestions for the future sustainable population development of Gansu province.