实物保护系统定量评价技术研究

Research on the Quantitative Evaluation Technology of Physical Protection System

实物保护系统定量评价是准确分析实物保护系统抵御敌人作案的有效性,评价实物保护系统防御能力的过程。国内使用的实物保护系统定量评价软件大多来自国外,软件偏重于外部入侵分析、内部作案分析,对内外勾结作案的定量评价分析很少涉及。本文结合某项目研究课题和核设施实际需求,对外部入侵作案、内部作案、内外勾结作案的定量评价进行了分析研究,提出一种外部敌人和内部敌人内外勾结作案时有实物保护系统有效性评价和风险评价的定量评价数学模型,丰富和完善了核设施实物保护系统定量评价方法,可对核设施实物保护系统进行系统性的定量评价,为国内核设施实物保护系统的监管、设计、运行及升级改造提供了技术支持。

The quantitative evaluation of physical protection system is to accurately analyze the effectiveness of the physical protection system against the enemy and evaluate the defense capability of the physical protection system,evaluation software domestic used are mostly foreign evaluation software,which are focus on external intrusion,and internal crime,rarely involved collusion crime,according to a research project and the actual demand of nuclear facilities,this paper analyzes the quantitative evaluation of external intrusion,internal and collusion crime,proposed a mathematical model of quantitative evaluation and an anlysis of collusion crime,which is used for quantitative evaluation and an anlysis of physical protection system.Enrich and perfect the quantitative evaluation methord of the physical protection system of nuclear facilities,also provide technical support for the supervision,design,operation and upgrading of the physical protection system of nuclear facilities.