西部大开发的净政策效应分析

Analysis of the net policy effect of the western development

西部大开发作为中国一项重要的区域发展战略,正确评价其实施效果不仅能对后续政策的实施和完善提供参考,而且还能对其他区域发展政策提供借鉴。在此,利用1992—2014年中国大陆31个省份的面板数据,通过运用合成控制法从西部整体和单个省份两方面对西部大开发的净政策效应进行了分析和评价,并就西部大开发对不同地区投入要素作用机制进行了研究。结果表明,西部大开发对西部地区经济发展的净政策效应整体上来说不显著。但按照行政区域划分后,分省进行评价结果发现,西部大开发对内蒙古、重庆、陕西、青海和宁夏地区经济发展净政策效应显著,且对地区经济发展呈正向促进作用;西部大开发对广西、云南和新疆地区经济发展的净政策效应亦显著,但对地区经济发展呈负向抑制作用;西部大开发对四川地区的净政策效应不显著。随后,对西部大开发的投入要素作用机制进行了检验,结果表明,西部大开发对不同省份投入要素作用机制呈现差异化特征,但普遍上促进了西部地区开放程度的提升和固定投资的增加。对西部大开发净政策效应为正的地区来说,地区政府干预程度较弱,且对于人力资源具有吸收作用;对净政策效应为负的地区,政府干预程度强且对人力资源具有显著的挤出作用;对净政策效应不显著的地区,政府参与程度较弱,对人力资源挤出作用不显著。因此,在未来西部大开发深入实施过程中,应加强对"软环境"的建设,同时要进一步明确政府权力的界限,通过深化地区市场机制体制的建设与内地发达地区建立有效合作,构建长效援建机制。

Correctly evaluate the effect of the implementation of the western development strategy,which is an important regional development strategy of China,will not only provide reference for the implementation and improvement of the follow up policies,but also provide reference for other regional development policies.This paper analyzes and evaluates the net policy effect of the west development from two aspects,the western whole and the individual provinces,by using the synthetic control method based on panel data of 31 provinces in China's Mainland from 1992 to 2014,and also studies the mechanism of the input factors in different regions on the western development.The results show that the net policy effect of the western development on the economic development of the western region is not significant overall.But after the administrative division,the results show that the western development has a significant positive net effect on the economic development of Inner Mongolia,Chongqing,Shaanxi,Qinghai and Ningxia;The policy of the western development has a significant negative net effect on the economic development of Guangxi,Yunnan and Xinjiang;the policy of western development has no obvious effect on the net policy effect of Sichuan.Subsequently,the mechanism of the western development is tested,and the results show that the western development has different characteristics in the mechanism in different provinces,but generally promoted the opening up of the western region and fixed investment increased.For the areas where the net policy effect is positive,the degree of regional government intervention is weak,and it has an absorption effect on human resources;while the areas with negative net policy effect,the government intervention is strong and has a significant crowding out effect on human resources;in the areas where the net policy effect is not significant,the degree of government participation is weak,and the crowding out effect on human resources is not significant.Therefore,we should strengthen the construction of“soft environment”in the further implementation of the western development policy in the future.At the same time,we should further clarify the boundaries of government power,and build a long term support mechanism through deepening the reform of market mechanism and building effective cooperation with the developed areas in the mainland.