基于性能指标的战机成本估算核心参数建模

Modeling of the core parameter of cost estimation for military aircraft based on performance index

参数估算法是当前武器装备成本估算的主要方法。TruePlanning软件作为国际主流的参数法装备成本估算软件,其核心参数是制造复杂度(Manufacturing Complexity)。由于该参数在武器装备发展早期无法准确获取,从而使得TruePlanning软件难以适用于新型武器装备发展的早期阶段。若能建立通过装备性能参数估算制造复杂度的模型,便能解决此问题。研究以美军战斗机/攻击机为对象,选取多个性能指标为初始变量,收集样本数据,并采用帽子矩阵法、外学生化残差和库克距离对原始数据进行诊断,确保数据真实可靠。最后通过逐步回归法筛选出最能体现制造复杂度特性的说明性变量,构建出针对于美军战斗机/攻击机的制造复杂度模型,为我国装备发展早期的费用估算工作开辟了新的思路。

Parameter estimation method is a major method for estimating the cost of armament.The core parameter of TruePlanning,the international mainstream cost estimation software by estimation of parameters,is Manufacturing Complexity.But It is difficult to apply TruePlanning in the early stages of new armament development because the parameter cannot be accurately obtained at these stages.This problem can be solved through a model in which Manufacturing Complexity is estimated by armament performance parameters.Taking a US Fighter/Attacker as an example,several performance indicators were selected as the initial variables and sample data was also collected.Hat matrix,externally studentized residual and Cook’s distance were used to diagnose the raw data to ensure the validity of the data.Finally,the step-by-step regression method was used to select the descriptive variables which were most likely to reflect the characteristics of Manufacturing Complexity and build the Manufacturing Complexity model for US Fighter/Attack.This model provides a new way for estimating cost of the new armament in the early stages of armament development.