非金融企业部门杠杆率与银行业风险研究

The Leverage of Non-financial Corporate Sector and the Banking Risk

通过对实体经济,特别是非金融企业进行深入剖析,可准确判断银行业的风险和隐患。理论和实证分析表明,国际金融危机后我国非金融企业部门较为突出的加杠杆问题,已在"双支柱"调控框架及强监管的政策压力下得到有效控制,未来非金融企业部门杠杆率有望稳步下降。但不同行业之间仍存在差异,房地产行业和公共设施管理行业未来的债务风险尤其不容忽视。本文研究发现,虽然银行可以通过主动调整行业信贷政策来降低经营风险,但如果不能通过供给侧结构性改革有效地在宏观层面提升全要素生产率,以及在微观层面改善企业的经营效益,则非金融企业部门的债务风险依然可能向银行体系传导。

The problems and risks of banking industry can be analyzed and judged accurately by scrutinizing the real economy,especially the non-financial enterprises.The leverage of China's non-financial corporate sector rose quickly after the global financial crisis,but it has been contained by effective implementation of the Double Pillar Control Policy as well as strict regulatory policies.Through theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper argues that the leverage of China's non-financial corporate sector would decline steadily.However,there are differences between different industries.The future debt risks in the real estate sector and public utilities should not be ignored.This paper finds that banks can reduce business risk by adjusting their credit policies actively,but if total factor productivity and business efficiency at the micro level cannot be improved,banks would bear the debt risks from the non-financial corporate.