基于灰预测与灰关联的区域水路货运发展研究——以广西为例

Development of Regional Waterway Freight Transportation Based on Grey Prediction and Grey Relation——Taking GuangXi Province as an Example

以广西和中国2009—2014年水路货运相关数据为基础,一方面通过灰色Verhulst及新陈代谢模型预测2015—2017年广西水路货运量;另一方面从区域经济、区域物流环境、产业发展、信息化等方面构建影响因素体系,利用灰色关联分析影响水路货运量的相关因素。结果表明:预测模型的平均误差是2.8%,能够有效预测水路货运量;同时可知产业发展对水路货运量发展影响最为显著,其次为区域经济因素,而区域物流环境与信息化因素的影响相对较弱。因此,应改善区域经济环境、发展物流相关产业、完善物流基础设施、加速区域物流信息化。

Using waterway freight related data from 2009 to 2014 in Guangxi Province and China as a whole,this paper,on one hand,applies grey Verhulst&metabolic model to forecast Guangxi waterway freight volume from the year 2015 till 2017,on the other hand,develops the influencing factor system from the perspectives of regional economy,regional logistics environment,industrial development and information technology,and explores the influencing factors of waterway freight volume by using grey relational analysis.Analysis shows that the average error of the prediction model is 2.8%,which can be used for volume prediction effectively;at the same time the development of industry has the most significant influence on the development of waterway freight volume,followed by regional economy factors,and factors of the influence of regional logistics environment and information were the weakest.Based on this,it is suggested to improve the regional economic environment,develop the related industries of logistics industry,improve the logistics infrastructure and speed up the regional logistics informatization.