城市公交客运量预测

Prediction of Urban Bus Passenger Traffic Based on Gray Theory and Markov Model

随着经济的发展,同时也带来了城市公交客运流量的增大,目前许多城市客流量的预测精度不高,城市公交已无法完全满足人们出行的需要。文章针对城市公交客流量预测精度不足的难题,从城市公交客流量历史数据的特征分析入手,通过灰色马尔科夫预测模型,预测城市公交客流量变化趋势,提高城市公交的客运效率。通过实际工程应用的数据表明:该模型能在短期内较好的预测城市公交客流量变化趋势,提高了城市公交客运的各项服务指标。

With the development of economy,it also brings about the increase of urban bus passenger traffic.At present,the prediction accuracy of many urban traffic is not high,and the city bus can not fully meet the needs of people traveling.In this paper,based on the analysis of the characteristics of urban bus traffic,the gray Markov forecasting model is used to predict the trend of urban bus traffic and improve the passenger transport efficiency of urban public transport.The data of actual engineering application show that the model can predict the trend of urban bus traffic in the short term and improve the service index of urban public transport.