汛限水位分期控制方法在石岩水库的应用

Applicationand Analysis of Stages Control Method of Flood Limited Water Level in Shiyan Reservoir

汛期分期划分及分期设计洪水的推求是分期汛限水位确定的关键。针对传统汛期分期方法主观性较强及分期设计洪水推求中分期防洪标准偏低的问题,以石岩水库为例,引入Fisher最优分割法进行汛期分期,将其结果与利用数理统计法划分的汛期分期进行对比分析,结果表明该方法可靠且分期方案合理。基于汛期分期结果,采用Copula函数推求分期设计洪水频率与防洪标准之间的关系,计算出各分期设计洪水值。此方法弥补了现行分期设计洪水中存在的不足,为合理确定分期汛限水位提供了科学依据,有利于提高水库的综合效益。

Flood season staging and staging design flooding is the key issue in the determination of flood limit water level.In order to solve the issue that the traditional flood season staging method is subjective and the staged design flood is smaller,taking the Shiyan Reservoir as an example,the Fisher optimal segmentation method was introduced to carry out the flood season and the results were compared with the use of mathematical statistics.The results show that the method is reliable and the stage is reasonable.Then,based on the results of the flood season,the copula function was used to design the relationship between the flood frequency and the flood control standard and calculate the design flood value.The method has made up the existing stage design flood in the problems and shortcomings,provided scientific basis for flood control water level to determine the reasonable and is conducive to improving the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir.