太阳黑子与全球地表温度变化周期性及相关性分析

Periodicities of Sunspot and the Global Surface Temperature Variation and Their Correlation

本文采用SIDC提供的1750~2016年逐月和1700~2016年逐年的太阳黑子观测资料,利用小波分析研究太阳黑子数变化的周期性。结果表明,太阳黑子数变化存在11和116 a的显著周期以及22和55 a的局部显著周期。最小二乘拟合分析表明太阳黑子周期的振幅与小波功率谱呈正比关系,11 a振幅最大。同时在1700~2016年间,太阳黑子以每年0.08个单位的速度增长。此外,全球地表温度变化存在22和64a的显著周期。1880~2016年太阳黑子数与全球地表温度的小波相干性分析结果表明,太阳黑子数变化对全球地表温度变化的作用主要体现在22 a周期上;太阳黑子数变化超前全球地表温度变化约3.6 a。

To investigate the periodicity of sunspot numbers,monthly sunspot data from 1749 to 2016 and yearly sunspot data from 1700 to 2016 provided by SIDC are used to analyze its periods by the wavelet analysis in this paper.The result shows that there is a significant period of 11 a,116 a and local significant periods of 22 a and 55 a in the change of sunspot number.Least square fitting analysis indicates that the amplitudes of sunspot period are proportional to the corresponding wavelet power spectrum in which the amplitude of 11 a is maximum.At the same time,sunspot has been increasing from 1700 to 2016 and the increment is 0.08 per year.In addition,there are significant cycles of 22 a and 64 a in the changes of global surface temperature.The result of the wavelet coherence analysis between sunspot number and the global surface temperature from 1880 to 2016 indicates that the effect of the change of sunspot number on the global surface temperature variation is mainly reflected in the 22 a cycle and the change of sunspot number beyond the global surface temperature variation around 3.6 a.