房地产投资风险的灰色模糊评价研究

The Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Real Estate Investment Risk

现阶段,中国的房地产泡沫异常严重,评估房地产投资风险等级进而做出正确的决策则显得更加重要。基于国内相关研究,本研究依据房地产开发的五个不同时期,建立了房地产投资风险评价指标体系;采用层次分析法与熵权法进行组合赋权计算评价指标的权重值,降低评价指标权重的主观性;兼顾评价指标灰色性和模糊性的双重特征,运用灰色模糊数学理论,构建了房地产投资风险灰色模糊综合评价模型。最后,通过实证研究验证了该模型的可行性,并与模糊综合评价法进行了定量比较,结果表明:使用灰色模糊综合评价法产生的误差较小,得到的评价结果更合理,可作为房地产企业科学决策的工具。

It became even more important to make the right decisions by assessing the real estate investment risk level in current China where suffered from a major property bubble.In this paper袁based on domestic studies and grey fuzzy theory袁a real estate investment risk evaluation system was established according to five different periods of real estate development袁analytic hierarchy process and entropy method were combined to determine the index weight and reduce the subjectivity of index weight袁a grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model which took into account double effect of grey and fuzzy characteristics of indexes was constructed.Finally袁the method was employed for empirical analysis and made the quantitative comparison with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method袁which indicates that the method proposed here was more reasonable.