房地产价格与地方政府土地出让结构——基于2009-2015年地级市面板数据的实证分析

Real Estate Prices and Land Transfer Structure of Local Governments——An Empirical Research based on Panel Data of Prefecture-level Cities from 2009 to 2015

近年来,土地出让逐渐成为我国地方政府的财政收入工具,而土地出让结构与地区产业空间布局息息相关。鉴于此,文章基于215个地级市2009-2015年的面板数据,研究房地产价格对地方政府土地出让结构的影响。实证结果表明:总体上,房地产价格对土地出让具有显著的正效应;而在不同财政状况下,房地产价格对不同类型土地出让的财富效应和替代效应不同,如在财政状况较好的情况下,房地产价格对住宅用地出让面积的财富效应较小。最后基于实证结论,提出具有针对性的政策建议。

In recent years袁land transfer has gradually become the financial revenue tool of local governments in China袁and the land transfer structure is closely related to the spatial distribution of industries in the region.In view of this袁this paper studies the impact of real estate prices on the land transfer structure of local governments袁based on panel data of 215 prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2015.The empirical results show that院the real estate prices as a whole have a significant positive effect on the land transfer曰and the wealth effect and substitution effect of the real estate prices on different types of land transfer are different under different financial conditions.For example袁the wealth effect of the real estate prices on the transfer of residential land is smaller under the condition of a better financial status.Finally袁the paper proposes some specific policy recommendations on the basis of the empirical research.