房价变动对制造业上市公司投资的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Housing Price Shock on Investment of Manufacturing Listed Companies

制造业是我国的支柱产业和经济发展的命脉。文章在对国内外相关文献梳理的基础之上,发现现有研究不仅存在研究结论不一致的问题,还存在样本选取范围过大,不利于房价波动溢出效应的政策制定和正确引导制造业企业投资行为。文章运用2010-2016年30家制造业上市公司的面板数据,通过采用面板回归模型,经单位根检验、协整检验和豪斯曼检验,对房价波动对制造业上市公司投资规模的影响进行了实证研究,取得了房价上涨、资产收益率、营业收入会促进制造业上市公司投资、资产负债率抑制制造业上市公司投资行为以及筹资净现金流量净额对制造业上市公司投资影响不显著的基本结论,提出政府应当实施稳定房价的经济政策、激励制造业上市公司多元化投资和加快制造业转型升级步伐的政策建议,以期实现我国制造业和国民经济健康发展的目的。

Manufacturing is the lifeblood of China's pillar industries and economic development.On the basis of reviewing related literatures at domestic and abroad袁this paper finds that the existing research not only has inconsistent research conclusions袁but also has some problems such as the sample selection scope is too large袁which is unfavorable to the policy making of housing price volatility spillover effect and correctly guiding the investment behavior of manufacturing enterprises.Using the panel data of China's 30 manufacturing listed companies from 2010 to 2016袁using the panel regression model袁unit root test袁co-integration test and Hausman test袁this paper analyzes the influence of the fluctuation of house prices on the scale of investment of manufacturing listed companies.The empirical research has achieved the basic conclusion that rising house prices袁return on assets and operating income will promote the investment of manufacturing listed companies袁the asset liability ratio to restrain the investment behavior of manufacturing listed companies and the net amount of net cash flow have no significant effect on the investment of manufacturing listed companies.It is suggested that the government should implement stable housing prices economic policies袁encouraging diversified investment in listed manufacturing companies and accelerating the pace of transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry袁with a view to achieving the goal of the healthy development of manufacturing industry and national economy in our country.