人口变动、消费结构与居民消费潜力释放——基于省际动态面板数据的GMM分析

Population Change,Consumption Structure and Release of Residents' Consumption Potential——Based on GMM Analysis of Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

以凯恩斯的绝对收入假说和霍尔的随机游走假说模型为基础,引入相关人口变量建立动态的Panel Data模型,利用2000~2014年全国30个省、市、自治区的省际面板数据,在对各变量进行平稳性检验和协整检验的基础上综合分析了人口变动对农村居民消费结构的影响。结果表明:消费结构受过去消费习惯的影响较为显著,且与人口因素存在长期的均衡关系,具体来说,老年抚养比和人口性别比提高会减缓居民消费结构的优化、升级;而人口受教育程度和人口城镇化的提升则会在一定程度上优化居民消费结构。在当前人口发展状态下,以生存型消费为主的低层级消费在我国仍将会持续一段时间,但随着人口结构的平衡、人口素质以及人口城镇化水平的提升,消费结构将会不断优化、升级。

On the basis of Keynes's absolute income hypothesis and Hall's random walking hypothesis,the paper introduces the related population variables to establish the dynamic Panel Data model.Using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014 of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of the country,based on the stationarity test and cointegration test for each variable,this paper comprehensively analyzes the influence of population change on the consumption structure of rural residents.The results show that the consumption structure is significantly influenced by the past consumption habits,and has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the demographic factors.Specifically,the increase of the elderly dependency ratio and population sex ratio will slow down the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure of residents.The improvement of population education level and population urbanization will optimize the residents'consumption structure to a certain extent.Under the current population development,the low level consumption based on subsistence consumption will continue for some time in our country.However,with the balance of population structure,the improvement of population quality and of population urbanization level,the consumption structure will be constantly optimized and upgraded.