农业产业链失衡、粮食进口贸易“大国效应”检验与“走出去”战略研究

Research on Unbalanced Agriculture Chain,“Big Country Effect” in Grain Import Trade and the Strategy of “Going Global”

粮食安全既是经济和社会发展的基础,也是国家安全的重要保障。基于此,文章研究了全球农业产业链失衡性问题;基于我国4种粮食作物近年来的进口数据,采用斯皮尔曼公式和VAR模型对我国粮食进口贸易中的"大国效应"问题进行了实证检验,发现我国进口的4种主要粮食作物的进口量、国内价格与国际价格并不存在关联,粮食进口贸易出现"大国效应"偏离现象,这表明我国粮食进口贸易在国际市场中处于不利地位;为了平衡我国粮食供需缺口、规避进口贸易不公平问题和维护我国的粮食安全,文章提出我国粮食生产"走出去"战略的模式和策略。

Food security is not only the basis of economic and social development,but also an important guarantee for national security.In the article,the author studied the issue of unbalanced global agriculture chain,and based on the data of four kinds of China-imported grain in recent years,used the Spearman formula and the VAR model to test the“big country effect”empirically in China's grain import trade.Through the empirical test,the author found that there is no connection among the import volume of the 4 major grain crops,domestic prices and international prices.China’s grain import trade deviates from the“big country effect”,which shows that China’s grain import trade is in a disadvantageous position in the international market.To balance the gap between supply and demand of grain in China,evade the unfairness of grain import trade and safeguard China’s food security,the author comes up with the strategy of“going global”for grain production of China.