江西省区域经济发展差异分析与空间极化预警研究

Analysis on Regional Economic Development Difference and Prediction of Spatial Polarization in Jiangxi Province

在区域经济差异理论的背景下,首先借鉴国内外关于区域经济差异度量指标,以江西省11个地级市为基本单元和研究尺度,定量分析了江西省2000-2016年期间的区域经济差异演变过程,并采用R/S分形理论方法探究了江西省区域经济差异的演变规律。然后,构建ARFIMA模型对"十三五"期间江西省区域经济极化演变趋势进行准确有效的监测、预警。结果表明:江西省目前的基尼系数已经突破警戒线,区域经济发展差异悬殊;江西省区域经济差异演变基本保持着N型发展趋势;区域经济差异具有较强的自相似性;江西省区域经济极化程度过大。

In the context of the theory of regional economic disparity,this paper first draws on the indicators of regional economic disparity at home and abroad,and analyzes the regional economic differences in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2016 as the basic unit of 11 prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province as the research scale And the evolution rule of regional economic difference in Jiangxi Province was explored by R/S fractal theory.Then,the ARFIMA model is constructed to monitor and forecast the regional economic polarization in Jiangxi Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.The results show that the current Gini coefficient in Jiangxi Province has exceeded the warning line and the regional economic development is very different.The regional economic differences in Jiangxi Province have basically maintained the N-type development trend;the regional economic differences have strong self-similarity;The regional economic polarization has entered a stage of disparity.