近57a河源地区降水变化特征及其与ENSO事件的关系

Characteristics of Precipitation Variations of Heyuan Area and Its Relationship with ENSO in the Recent 57 Years

利用河源地区5个国家气象站1960—2016年的逐月降水数据、NOAA逐月海温等资料,采用趋势分析等方法,分析了河源地区降水特征及其对ENSO事件的响应,结果表明:河源中部、西北部年均降水较大,东北部较小,极大值出现在靠近新丰江的东源;春、夏、冬季和年降水呈递增趋势,秋季则相反,但递增或递减趋势不明显;年降水变化存在准2 a、4~5 a、7~8 a和准21a周期变化规律;El Ni1o事件时,春、秋季降水均小于正常年份,夏、冬季则相反,且年降水较正常年份有增加趋势。La Ni1a事件时,春、夏季和年降水均小于正常年份,且年降水则较正常年份有减少趋势;ENSO事件对河源降水的影响存在滞后性,且主要影响秋、冬季。

Based on the monthly average precipitation and monthly NOAA sea surface temperature data of 5 meteorological stations in Heyuan area in 1960-2016,using the trend analysis and other methods to analyze the precipitation characteristics of Heyuan area and its response to ENSO events.The results show that the average annual precipitation in central and northwestern Heyuan is larger,the northeast is smaller,and the maximum appears in Dongyuan near Xinfeng River;The spring,summer,winter and annual precipitation show an increasing trend,while the autumn is the opposite,or the decreasing trend is not obvious.The annual variation of annual precipitation has a periodic variation of 2,4-5,7-8 and 21 years.In El Ni o event,the precipitation in spring and autumn is less than normal,while in summer and winter,compared with normal years,there is an increasing trend.In La Ni a event,spring,summer and annual precipitation were less than normal years,and annual precipitation decreased compared with that of normal years;The impact of ENSO event on precipitation in Heyuan is lagging and mainly affects autumn and winter.