DGM(2,1)模型在近似饱和S型变形预测中的应用

Application of DGM( 2,1) Model in the Prediction of Approximate Saturated S Type Deformation

传统的GM(1,1)、DGM(1,1)模型在对累计位移量进行预测时,表现出很强的"惰性"。同时在灰色发展系数的影响下,得到的预测值严重偏离实测值,其偏离程度超出允许范围。此外较多监测点的累计位移量呈现出近似饱和S型,而传统的模型只对单调递增序列具有较好的预测效果。将DGM(2,1)模型应用于位移量呈现出近似饱和S型的变形预测中,结合工程实例进行验证,并与传统的GM(1,1)、DGM(1,1)模型预测结果进行对比,结果表明DGM(2,1)模型感应数据列变化的灵敏度较高,得到的x方向预测模型中误差为0.26mm,y方向预测中误差为0.06 mm。精度远高于GM(1,1)、DGM(1,1)模型。

The traditional GM(1,1)and DGM(1,1)models show a strong inertness while predicting the cumulative displacement.Meanwhile,under the influence of the gray development coefficient,the predicted value is seriously deviated from the measured value,and the deviation degree is beyond the allowable range.In addition,many cumulative displacements of the monitoring points are approximately saturated S,while the traditional model can only predict the monotone increasing sequences well.The DGM(2,1)model is applied to the prediction of the deformation of the approximate saturated S type.It is combined with the engineering example,and compared with the prediction results of traditional GM(1,1),DGM(1,1)model,the results show that the sensitivity of the DGM(2,1)model is higher,and the model median error of the x-direction prediction is 0.26 mm,Y direction is 0.06 mm.The precision is much higher than GM(1,1),DGM(1,1)model.