土地市场对地方政府融资平台信用风险的影响度研究

Research on Influential Degree of Land Market on LGFV Credit Risk

文章基于的ZETA评分和有序logistic模型,构建土地市场与地方政府融资平台公司信用风险的关系模型,量化平台公司的信用风险并分析土地市场对平台公司信用风险的影响度。首先,架构ZETA评分模型来综合多项财务指标量化平台公司的信用风险;其次,利用ZETA预测值和土地市场指标数据,按土地市场指标的类别分别建立有序logistic模型,分析土地市场的不同层面对平台公司信用风险的影响度。最后得出了8项保护因子和4项危险因子,以及量化影响度的OR值及其95%CI,并从土地的量价属性解析影响机理。

The paper constructs a relation model between land market and LGFV credit risk,based on ZETA scoring model and ordinal logistic model,the aim of which is to quantify credit risk and to analyze influence degree respectively.The first part is to build up the ZETA scoring model,in order to make use of several financial indexes to quantify credit risk.The second part is,in the use of data of ZETA and land market indexes,to building up ordinal logistic models according to the sort of land market indexes,which follows the analysis on the influence degree of different facets of land market on LGFV.And finally,the analysis gets 8 protective factors and 4 risk factors with their OR and 95%CI,and explains different factors'influence mechanism based on attributes of land quantity and price.