1953年以来中国农业生产投工的变迁过程和未来变化趋势

The Transition of Labor Input in Agriculture Production since 1953 and the Tendency of Its Development

根据各年统计资料,本文考察了1953年以来中国农业生产投工强度、投工总量和投工结构的变迁过程,发现以1978年为拐点,各类农产品生产的投工强度呈"倒U型"变迁轨迹。历年粮食生产所需劳动力人数都远低于第一产业就业人数,且1978年以后,粮食生产所需劳动力人数占第一产业就业人数的比重呈下降趋势。历年大豆、棉花、油料、糖料、烤烟种植所需劳动力人数都明显小于粮食生产所需劳动力人数。此外,果蔬种植和畜禽养殖现已成为吸纳第一产业就业人员的主要生产类型。总体上,中国第一产业就业人数仍然明显高于农业生产所需劳动力人数。随着第一产业就业人数的下降,其超出农业生产所需劳动力人数的幅度不断缩小。未来,劳动密集型农产品的生产可能面临一定程度的劳动力总量不足问题,而粮食生产则可能面临劳动力季节性不足的问题。为确保国家粮食安全,相关政策应重点支持能够应对劳动力季节性不足问题的农业技术创新与研发。

Based on statistical information,this article investigates the transition of labor input in the agricultural production since 1953.It finds that the transition process of both the intensity and amount of labor input in the agricultural production follows an inverted U curve.The proportion of the amount of labor input in the grain production to the total number of employed persons in the agricultural production has experienced a decline since 1978,from 60%to 14%in 2014.Labor input structure in the agricultural production and its pattern have been largely transformed.Basically the number of employed persons in the agricultural sector still exceeds the number that is needed for the agricultural production.However,the gap between the actual number and the number that is needed is narrowing with an ongoing process of labor transfer.Based on the investigation,the study suggests seasonal factors in the agricultural production for consideration in further research and policy discussion.