基于CA-Markov模型的“丝绸之路经济带”沿线地区土地利用变化分析与预测——以西北五省为例

Analysis and prediction about land use change in area along the Silk Road Economic Belt based on CA-Markov model:A case study of five provinces in Northwest China

"丝绸之路经济带"是"一带一路"战略的重要组成部分,是中国提出的一种国际区域经济合作新模式,其目的是为了推动中国经济全球化发展。土地利用变化是影响区域发展的关键要素,因此对"丝绸之路经济带"沿线地区土地利用变化情况进行研究对该战略的实施有着重要的意义。本文以1980年和2005年西北五省土地覆被数据为基础,分析该区域25年来的土地利用变化情况。西北五省25年间林地、草地、未利用地的面积减少,耕地、建设用地、水域的面积增加;利用CA-Markov模型结合土地利用面积转移概率矩阵模拟2005年土地利用格局并预测2030年的土地利用情况,结果表明,2005年模拟数据的精度符合预测要求,2005—2030年的土地利用变化趋势与1980—2005年的变化趋势保持一致。研究区生态环境脆弱,应加强对其的保护以帮助"一带一路"战略的实施。

The Silk Road Economic Belt is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative,which is a new international regional economic cooperation mode proposed by China to promote the development of Chinese economic globalization.Land use change is one of the key elements for regional development,so the study of land use changes in area along the Silk Road Economic Belt has important significance for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.Based on the 1980 and 2005 land cover data of five provinces in Northwest China,this article analyzes land use change in 25 years of the area along the Belt and Road Initiative.The result shows that the area of forest land,grassland and unused land decreased,and the area of cultivated land,construction land and water area increased in 25 years.Forecasting land use situation in 2030 by using CA-Markov model combined with the transfer probability matrix of land use area,the result shows that the accuracy of simulated data in 2005 is meeting the demand,and the trend of land use change from 2005 to 2030 is consistent with trend of land use change from 1980 to 2005.The ecological environment of the study area is fragile,which should be protected to help implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.