外部需求冲击、开发商非理性预期与房价波动

External Demand Shocks,Developers' Irrational Expectations and Housing Price Fluctuation

作者着重研究了外部需求冲击下开发商非理性预期对房价波动的影响及其实现条件。通过构建基于冲击—传导的Stock-Flow房地产周期模型,并利用不同参数组合进行模拟,还原了外部需求冲击与开发商非理性心理预期交织下的房价波动机理,对2008年以来中国住房市场价格频繁波动从供给侧角度做出了理论解释。模拟研究发现,在一次性外部需求冲击下,开发商的非理性预期能使住房价格产生持续的波动。正向冲击比负向冲击更容易带来房价的大幅度波动。传导机制分析发现,需求刚性、价格粘性及开发建设管制会进一步强化房价波动性。除了合理的需求管控外,还有必要进一步完善住房供应体系、加强基于供给侧的房地产业反周期政策。

This article focuses on the influence of irrational investment on housing price fluctuation and its implementation conditions under the external demand shocks.By constructing a shock-conduct real estate cycle model based on the Stock-Flow functions and simulating it by using different parameters,this paper explained the housing price volatility since 2008 from the supply side.The results of simulations show that the irrational expectation of the developers can continuously fluctuate the housing price under the one-off external demand shock.Positive shocks more likely cause larger fluctuations than negative ones.Demand rigidity,price stickiness and construction regulations will strengthen the fluctuation of housing price.Except the rational demand management,it is necessary for us to improve housing supply system and formulate the counter cyclical policy based on the supply side.