1981—2010年内蒙古气温变化特征及未来趋势预估

Variation Characteristics and Future Trend Estimation of Temperature in Inner Mongolia During 1981—2010

基于8 km气温栅格数据、全球模式(BCC_CSM1.1)驱动区域模式Reg CM4得到的RCP8.5和RCP4.5情景数据,采用时段对比分析、线性趋势分析等方法,研究了内蒙古地区气温变化特征及未来演变趋势。结果表明:从1981年到2010年,内蒙古地区气温显著上升,平均升速为0.49℃·10a^(-1),且最高气温升速略高于最低气温升速;升温幅度阶段性明显,全区1980s至1990s平均气温上升0.65℃,而1990s至21世纪初仅增温0.30℃;三大草原间年均气温年代际变化规律一致,但总体上草甸草原升温速率最小,而荒漠草原升温速率最大。与基准时段(1981—2010年)相比,全区年平均气温RCP4.5情景下在2020s、2030s和2040s分别增加0.92℃、1.27℃和1.78℃,而RCP8.5情景下分别增加1.39℃、1.56℃和2.07℃,RCP4.5与RCP8.5情景下典型草原增温幅度均最为突出。

Based on the 8 km temperature raster data and RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenario data obtained from regional model RegCM4 drove by global model(BCC_CSM1.1),using the methods of time interval comparison analysis and linear trend analysis,this paper analyzed the variation characteristics and future trend estimation of temperature in Inner Mongolia.The result indicated that the temperature in Inner Mongolia increased remarkably from 1981 to 2010,with a mean rate of 0.49℃·10a-1,especially in the max temperature.The warming rate showed obviously periodical feature,the average temperature increased 0.65℃from 1980s to 1990s,and 0.30℃from 1990s to the beginning of the 21th century.The mean temperature change of the three grasslands was consistent,but with the least rising rate in meadow steppe and highest heating rate over desert steppe.Compared with baseline(1981-2010),the mean temperature would rise by 0.92℃,1.27℃,1.78℃in 2020s,2030s and 2040s under RCP 4.5,while it would increase by 1.39℃,1.56℃,2.07℃under RCP8.5.The warming amplitude over typical steppe were the most prominent under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.