沿海地区海洋经济与海洋环境协调性脱钩分析

The Decoupling Analysis on Coordination between Marine Economic Growth and Marine Environmental of Coastal Provinces and Cities

随着海洋经济的发展,海洋经济与海洋环境之间的关系越来越复杂。论文从海洋环境污染、海洋环境治理和海洋科研能力三个方面选取了12个指标,应用Tapio脱钩模型计算了大陆11个沿海省(区、市)2006年—2015年的海洋经济发展与海洋环境的脱钩水平,并结合聚类分析、GIS技术以及变异系数等方法对其进行了时空分析。结果得出:沿海地区整体的海洋经济发展与海洋环境的综合脱钩水平基本保持在弱脱钩,波动较大且有下降趋势;沿海11省市的脱钩水平时空差异较大且有逐渐扩大的趋势,未来几年沿海地区海洋经济发展与海洋环境的协调性发展趋势仍然不容乐观。

With the development of the marine economy,the relationship between the marine economy and the marine environment has become more and more complicated.In this paper,we select 12 indicators from the aspects of marine environmental pollution,marine environmental governance and marine scientific research ability.By using the Tapio decoupling model,we calculate the marine economic development and economic growth in 11 coastal provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2006 to 2015,Marine environment decoupling level and combined with cluster analysis,GIS technology and the coefficient of variation of timespace analysis.The results show that the overall marine economic development in the coastal areas and the overall decoupling of marine environment remain at a weak decoupling trend with large fluctuations and a downward trend;the decoupling level of 11 coastal provinces shows a large spatial-temporal difference and a gradual expansion trend,In the next few years,the coordinated development trend of marine economic development and the marine environment in the coastal areas will not be optimistic.