中国电力部门中长期低碳发展路径研究

Study on medium and long-term low-carbon development pathway of China's power sector

电力部门是中国CO_2排放的主要贡献部门之一,电力部门的低碳转型对中国实施长期低碳发展战略具有至关重要的作用。本文构建了包含电力模块的自下而上的能源系统模型PECE-2017,根据社会经济驱动因子确定终端部门电力需求,并引入电力负荷曲线确定电力供给,设置了未来电力发展的基准和低碳两个情景,从供需结构、技术需求、成本和投资等多个角度,分析电力部门自身的低碳转型及其对中国实现中长期低碳发展的重要作用和贡献。研究表明:第一,未来中国电力需求仍将不断增长,且在终端能耗中的占比不断上升。低碳情景下,2050年电力需求达到114 869亿kW·h,比2013年上升125%,电气化率增加到34%;电力需求结构中,工业和建筑比重下降,交通部门比重上升。第二,电源结构逐步低碳化。煤电逐步淘汰;风电和太阳能装机容量大幅上升,2050年装机占比均超过30%;2030年以后,部署和推广CCS技术,到2050年装机容量达到4.9亿kW。第三,低碳情景下,电力部门在2020年碳排放达峰后,进一步加速脱碳。到2050年,电力部门的排放量可控制在4亿t以内,相对基准情景减少排放61.5亿t,占总减排的贡献率达到45%,为中国的低碳转型做出重要贡献。第四,支撑电力部门低碳转型的投资需求GDP占比在合理区间内。2030—2050年,电力部门投资需求占GDP的比重为0.77%;电力部门内部投资结构呈现明显的低碳化趋势,绝大部分投资将用于非化石能源电力。

The power sector is one of the major sources of China’s CO 2 emissions,and the low-carbon transition in the power sector is crucial to China’s long-term low-carbon development strategy.This paper builds a bottom-up model of energy system PECE-2017 which includes power modules.The module determines the power demand of the terminal sector according to the socio-economic drivers,introduces the power load curve to determine the power supply,and sets two scenarios-the business as usual scenario and the low-carbon scenario for future power development.This paper analyzes the low-carbon transition of the power sector and its important role and contribution to China’s realization of medium and long-term low-carbon development from the perspectives of supply and demand structure,technology demand,cost and investment.The research shows that:First,the demand of China’s power will continue to grow in the future,and the proportion in the terminal energy consumption will continue to rise.In the low-carbon scenario,the electricity demand in 2050 will reach 11 486 900 million kW·h,125%higher than that in 2013 and the electrification rate will increase to 34%.In the structure of electricity demand,the proportion of industry and construction will drop while the proportion of transportation sector will increase.Second,the power structure is gradually low carbon.Coal and electricity will be phased out;the installed capacity of wind power and solar power have risen sharply,accounting for more than 30%of installed capacity in 2050;and deployment and promotion of CCS technology after 2030 will reach 490 million kW by 2050.Third,under the low-carbon scenario,the power sector will further accelerate its decarbonization after the carbon emissions peak in 2020.By 2050,power sector emissions can be controlled within 400 million tons,6 150 million tons of emissions relative to the baseline scenario,accounting for 45%of the total emission reduction contribution to China’s low-carbon transition.Fourthly,the investment demand supporting low-carbon transition in the power sector accounted for a reasonable percentage of GDP.From 2030 to 2050,the investment demand of the power sector accounted for 0.77%of the GDP;the investment structure of the power sector showed a noticeably low-carbon trend,with the majority of investment will be used for non-fossil energy power generation.