风电场出力特性及风速超短期预测研究

Research on Wind Power Generation Characteristics and Short Term Wind Speed Forecasting

风电出力具有随机性和波动性特点,通过开展风电特性分析及风电场出力预测,可以减轻风电不确定性对电网的影响。分析了风力发电特性,概述了风电出力预测方法,并建立基于误差校正的BP神经网络模型来进行风速预测,实例计算分析结果表明,该模型有效提高了预测精度。

The output of wind farm have the characteristics of stochastic and fluctuant.Analysis of wind power output and forecasting of wind power or wind speed will reduce the adverse effects of wind power.This paper analyzed the characteristics of wind power generation,summarized the prediction methods of wind power and constructed the BP neural network model based on error correction to carry out wind speed prediction.The living example computational analysis result shows that this model improves prediction accuracy effectively.