黄河流域Budyko方程参数n演变规律及其归因研究

Analysis of change and attribution of Budyko equation parameter n in Yellow River

基于移动窗口法、多元逐步回归模型、敏感性系数法和贡献评估法,定量分析黄河流域Budyko水热耦合平衡方程中的参数n在黄河流域的变化规律及其与气候变化和人类活动的相关关系。结果表明,参数n在1956—2000年间呈现上升趋势,其变化与降水(P)、人口状况(Pop)、生产总值(GGDP)和有效灌溉面积(Airr)最为相关。其中,参数n的变化对P最为敏感,敏感系数达到1.169,且P的变化抑制了参数n的增加(贡献率为-20.2%);参数n对Pop、GGDP和Airr的敏感性系数分别为0.795、0.038和-0.152,并随人类活动的加剧而上升,其中Pop的增加对参数n增加的贡献最大(128.7%)。

In the Yellow River,the Budyko equation parameter changes and its response to climate change and human activities were quantitatively analyzed based on the moving window,multiple stepwise regression(MSR),sensitive coefficient method and contribution assessment method.The results indicate that the Budyko equation parameter n increases during the period from 1956 to 2000 and the changes of the parameter are mostly relevant to P,Pop,Ggdp and Ain.Wherein,the sensitive coefficient of P,which is the mostly sensitive to the Budyko equation parameter change,is 1.169 and the changes of P has a negative effect on the increase of the parameter n(contribution rate is-20.2%).In addition,the sensitive coefficients of Pop,Ggdp and Airr are 0.795,0.038 and-0.152,respectively.Increasing human activities have positive effects on the increment of the parameter n and the increase in Pop has the major contributions to the increment of the parameter n(128.7%).