工程风险向工程社会危机演化的机理及应对策略

Evolution Mechanism and Coping Strategies from Engineering Risk to Engineering Social Crisis

近年来,不断发生的工程社会危机都由工程风险演化而来,给整个社会造成了巨大的负面影响。基于探索性单案例研究方法,以我国重大安全事故中具有显著社会影响的天津港危险品仓库爆炸事故为分析样本,将工程危机作为中介变量,划分工程风险向工程社会危机演化的过程:工程风险向工程危机的演化、工程危机向工程社会危机的演化,并分析工程社会危机产生的路径及其推动因素,构建工程风险向工程社会危机演化的过程模型。引入阶段—关卡流程模型,研究工程社会危机全过程防范与应对机制,为未来工程社会危机管理提供借鉴。

In recent years,the ongoing engineering social crisis has evolved from the engineering risk and has had a serious effect on the entire society.Based on the exploratory single case study method,the paper analyzes the sample of the Hazardous Warehouse Explosion in Tianjin Port with significant social impact in China.Engineering crisis is extracted as intermediary variables,and the process from engineering risk to engineering social crisis is divided into two stages:from engineering risk to engineering crisis and from engineering crisis to engineering social crisis.It studies the conformation path of the engineering social crisis and its driving factors,and then builds evolution process model from the engineering risk to the engineering social crisis.Finally,it uses the stage-gate model to analyze the whole process prevention and response mechanism of the engineering social crisis and provides reference for the future social crisis management.