高等教育对城镇化水平的影响研究

Research on the Relationship between Higher Education and Urbanization

选择中国1998-2016年城镇化率和高等教育水平时间序列数据,建立反映二者动态关系的向量自回归VAR模型,并对模型进行稳定性检验,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析中国高等教育水平与城镇化水平之间的动态关系。结果显示,中国高等教育水平和城镇化水平之间存在长期稳定关系,高等教育水平的提高对城镇化发展具有明显的带动作用,表明高等教育促进了农村人口向城镇人口转化和迁移,且高等教育水平波动也直接影响城镇化水平的波动。

In this paper,a vector autoregressive VAR model is established to reflect the dynamic relationship between the two,and the stability of the model is tested based on the time series data of urbanization rate and higher education level of China in 1998-2016 and the dynamic relationship between the level of higher education and the level of urbanization in China is analyzed by using the impulse response function and the variance decomposition.The results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between the level of higher education and the level of urbanization in China and the improvement of higher education has a significant role in promoting the development of urbanization,which shows that higher education has promoted the transformation and migration of rural population to urban population,and the fluctuation of higher education level also directly affects the fluctuation of urbanization level.