基于ARMA模型的福建省沿海与山区居民收入分析和预测

Analysis and Forecast of the Income of the Residents in Coastal and Mountainous Areas in Fujian Province Based on ARMA Model

运用时间序列分析原理,对福建省1985-2016年沿海与山区各研究市的城镇与农村居民人均可支配收入数据进行处理分析,并结合使用Eviews统计软件,通过对构造的12组序列拟合方程分析检验构建合理的ARMA模型,再根据人口结构整合成沿海与山区两组序列,从而预测福建省2017-2020年沿海与山区居民的人均可支配收入,最后利用预测结果提出合理建议.

In this paper,the time series analysis principle is used to analyze the per capita disposable income data of urban and rural residents in coastal and mountainous areas of Fujian Province from 1985 to 2016.Combined with the Eviews statistical software,and based on the analysis and test on the constructed 12 series of fitting equations,a reasonable ARMA model is constructed.Based on the population structure,the time series of coastal and mountainous areas are integrated to predict the per capita disposable income of the residents in coastal and mountainous areas in Fujian Province from 2017 to 2020.Lastly,reasonable suggestions are proposed through the forecast results.