陇南市人口预测模型研究

Study on Longnan Population Prediction Model

分析了陇南市1968年以来人口发展的现状,选择1968-2015年的人口数据,利用MATLAB拟合工具箱建立陇南市人口总数与时间序列之间的线性回归模型、非线性对数函数模型、Logistic人口增长模型.通过相关系数、标准差和残差及相对误差评估模型优劣,最终建立了对数函数的线性组合模型,该模型的相关系数较大,相对误差控制在理想范围内,预测结果好.

This paper analyzes the current population development of Longnan since 1968.Specifically,selecting the population data from 1968 to 2015,the paper uses the MATLAB fitting toolbox to establish a linear regression model,a non-linear logarithmic function model and Logistic population growth model between population and time series in Longnan.The correlation coefficient,standard deviation and residual error as well as relative error were used to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the model.Finally,a linear combination model of logarithmic function was established.The correlation coefficient was large and the relative error was controlled within the ideal range.The result is good.