基于系统动力学的公益性项目施工方收益影响因素研究

Application of System Dynamics for Influencing Factors of Contractor's Profit Identification in the Public Warefare Project

明确公益性项目施工方收益的影响因素是科学进行施工方收益管理的前提条件,为了明确该问题,运用系统动力学方法,从利益相关者视角对公益性项目的众多影响因素进行动态分析,建立施工方收益影响因素的系统动力学模型,分析明确各影响因素之间的结构动态关系,确定模型的边界点及其数值,构造系统方程式,并对影响因素进行了vensim模拟、分析与计算机仿真。通过研究得出不同的因素对施工方收益的影响程度,最终得出影响施工方收益的主要影响因素为:施工方自身的施工组织方式,建设单位的影响力,合同变更,政府的投资及政策。因此,在施工过程中,施工方需要对这些主要影响因素加以重点控制,才能实现施工方经济效益的最大化。

This paper analyzes numerous influence factors of public warefare project from the perspective of stakeholders by using the system dynamics method,based on the contractor's profit influencing factors of public warefare project.This study builds the system dynamics model of contractor's profit influencing factors and analyzes the structure of the dynamic relationship between various influencing factors,determines the boundary point and numerical of the model,constructs system equations as well as collect data on the influence factors for vensim simulation,analysis and computer simulation by the means of questionnaire survey method.The research results show the influence of different factors on the contractor's profit of the degree.The main influencing factors of contractor's profit influence are:the contractor's own construction organization way,the influence of the construction unit,the contract changes,and the government's investment and policy.Therefore,in the process of construction,contractors need to focus on controlling the main influencing factors so as to maximize the contractor's profit.